That is the second article inspecting nursery handicaps – handicaps for 2-year-olds, writes Dave Renham. Within the first piece, I checked out varied components, together with the betting market, place final day out (LTO), the intercourse of the horse, weight carried, profession begins, and run model. You’ll be able to learn that one right here.
On this second article, I’ll take a look at health by way of when their most up-to-date run was, LTO value, and trainers, amongst different issues. The info are sourced from the final 9 seasons of UK flat and all-weather racing (2015 to 2023), and earnings and losses are quoted to Trade SP. I’ll quote Betfair SP the place applicable.
Days since final run
This can be a metric most punters take discover of. The final sample for all flat races is that the shorter the time since racing, the upper the strike charge. Nevertheless, the market is well-adjusted to this and costs are often balanced accordingly. Let’s see, although, whether or not an edge might be discovered, both optimistic or damaging, from the 2yo nursery stats:
The strike charge sample might be seen right here, as talked about above. Horses returning to the monitor inside 5 days are comfortably hitting one of the best strike charge however are the third worst in SP returns. In addition they supplied the worst returns to BSP of all of the groupings. The one group to keep away from, although, is the group that has had the longest day without work the monitor (61+ days). These have provided the worst returns, the bottom strike charge, and the bottom A/E index.
Floor change (or not)
I need to share some knowledge on what floor the nursery was run on (e.g. turf or all climate) in contrast with the horses’ earlier begin. Therefore, there are 4 doable combos to have a look at:
So, what do the stats say? The A/E indices recommend that one of many 4 mixtures affords much better worth than the opposite three. The graph under exhibits the figures:
Horses switching from a run on the all-weather LTO to the turf this time have provided punters by far one of the best worth. That is additionally mirrored within the returns for each SP and BSP.
The Flat / LTO AW figures for SP returns are higher by over 7p within the £ than the opposite three. As well as, the BSP returns are optimistic at round 5.5 pence within the £. That is most likely because of the market barely downgrading the possibilities of younger horses switching from the sand to the turf. With restricted race expertise on each surfaces, it may be difficult for bookmakers to cost up these floor switchers precisely.
LTO Race Sort
Subsequent, take a look at the LTO Race Sort, splitting by handicap vs. non-handicap.
It has been a slight benefit for nursery runners to have run in a nursery handicap on their most up-to-date begin. Concerning non-handicaps LTO, you may need to keep away from any horse coming from a claimer, as they might have misplaced you 77p within the £. Additionally, horses coming from sellers have finished poorly, dropping over 32p within the £.
LTO Worth
I typically take a look at this metric: the worth of the horse on its final run. To start with, I’ll take a look at some LTO Beginning Worth Bands, specializing in the worth metric, which is the A/E index:
When inspecting final day beginning value, we see a situation much like the one within the first article – the maxim is the shorter, the higher. Horses priced up 6/4 or shorter on their most up-to-date begin are ones to observe intently. Backing these runners blind to SP would have yielded a slight loss, however to BSP a return of practically 6p within the £ would have been achieved. Additionally, in the event you had been a bit extra selective with these 6/4 or much less LTO runners, sticking to those who began in single figures subsequent time, you then would have been rewarded with 177 wins from 689 runners (SR 25.7%) for a BSP revenue of £85.84 (ROI +12.5%). You’ll have additionally made a revenue to SP with these runners to the tune of £27.27 (ROI +4.0%).
Class Change
Does a change at school of race make any distinction? Listed below are the splits:
There may be not a lot to decide on between the three right here, though the ROI% is best for sophistication droppers. Class droppers have been worthwhile at Betfair SP however these outcomes have been skewed by a number of excessive costs hitting the mark.
Trainers
My ultimate port of name is to have a look at trainers. Firstly, let me study the trainers who had no less than 70 nursery runners throughout the examine interval and obtained a strike charge of 14% or increased. I’ve ordered them by win strike charge:
Ten trainers have managed a revenue of which eight have an A/E index above 1.00. All eight of those trainers ought to be classed as optimistic in these races. I’ll revisit a few of these in a minute, however earlier than then, onto these trainers who’ve recorded a strike charge of under 8%:
All eleven on this desk have seen losses of over 40 pence within the £ to £1 stage stakes, and I might be avoiding these trainers in nurseries except another spectacular stats may persuade me in any other case.
As typically with coach knowledge, to keep away from excessive costs doubtlessly skewing earnings let me give attention to coach efficiency with runners that began in single figures (e.g. 9/1 or much less). For this group I’ve relaxed the qualifier restriction to 50, together with 48 trainers that had no less than 50 qualifiers through the use of this value restriction:
Ralph Beckett has the stand-out single value stats, producing returns simply shy of 26p within the £. He additionally has a superb A/E index of 1.21. Breaking down his outcomes for these 9/1 or shorter nursery contenders, I discover that his male runners have fully outgunned the feminine ones. The primary article famous that male horses comfortably outperformed their feminine counterparts in mixed-sex nurseries. Right here, the distinction is much more stark. His male horses (when 9/1 or shorter) have gained over 31% of their begins returning 47p within the £; his feminine runners inside the identical value bracket have gained simply 18% and would have misplaced you over 6p within the £.
The stats are additionally very fascinating for Beckett when taking a look at ALL his runners throughout ALL SP costs – we see the next primarily based on A/E indices:
There aren’t any winners within the 10/1+ bracket – he’s 0 from 48 with solely two positioned. The message is obvious – any Beckett runners priced 9/1 or shorter ought to supply glorious worth; any priced 10/1 or greater affords little or no worth.
Returning to the most recent desk, different trainers to maintain on the precise aspect can be Sir Mark Prescott, Rod Millman, Ed Walker, Archie Watson, and runners from the Crisford secure. I might additionally preserve an eye fixed out for all of the others highlighted in blue close to the highest of the desk.
I believe any coach within the backside quarter of the desk whose A/E index is underneath 0.75 ought to be handled with warning.
5 Key Coach Angles
Earlier than ending, I want to share 5 of essentially the most very important coach stats I may discover:
1. Charlie Appleby at Newmarket has secured 14 wins from 37 (SR 37.8%) for an SP revenue of £13.29 (ROI +35.9%).
2. At Grade 1 tracks (Ascot, Doncaster, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown, and York), the Crisford secure has gained 10 of 30 begins (SR 33.3%) for a revenue of £17.91 (ROI +57.9%). This is a superb effort contemplating these nurseries are a few of the best.
3. George Boughey has a strike charge of 41.8% with nursery favourites (28 wins from 67) for a revenue of £12.65 (ROI +18.9%).
4. Ralph Beckett has a superb file with LTO winners due to 14 wins from 37 runners (SR 37.8%) for a revenue of £19.63 (ROI +53.1%).
5. Tom Dascombe, like Beckett, has finished effectively with winners LTO, scoring 33.3% of the time (18 from 54) for a revenue of £43.67 (ROI +80.9%).
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That concludes my evaluation of nursery handicaps, that are a betting medium that may actually kind part of one’s betting portfolio. I hope a few of these angles can provide you that very important edge over the gang.
-DR
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