Betting On Speed in the Smarty Jones Stakes

By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman


Glad New Yr!

I am glad to report I hit a
milestone purpose in 2024: 50% successful alternatives on Unlocking Winners. Relying
on whether or not or not you depend second selections after a number of of my high selections
scratched, my document for the yr ended at both 47-for-94 (50%) or 49-for-97
(50.5%).

Thanks for bearing with me
as I toured loads of minor stakes seeking near-certain winners. I hope my
7-for-14 Breeders’ Cup tally, with successful longshots Citizen Bull (15-1) and
Soul of an Angel (19-1), compensated for the quantity of chalky favorites I
picked alongside the way in which. Chalk however, my Breeders’ Cup picked ensured
that anybody betting an equal quantity to win on all my alternatives in 2024 would
have made a revenue.

Having unlocked an ample
provide of winners in 2024, my purpose for 2025 is to pursue greater payoffs. I am going to
begin with a non-favored entrant in Saturday’s $250,000 Smarty Jones S. at
Oaklawn Park, a 1 1/16-mile Street to the Kentucky Derby qualifier that yielded
final yr’s Derby 1-3 finishers Mystik Dan and Catching Freedom.

The morning line favourite is
#6 Sizzling Property (8-5), and his
credentials are respectable. Skilled by Brad Cox (who has gained three of the final
4 editions of the Smarty Jones), Sizzling Property debuted with victory in a 1
1/16-mile maiden particular weight at Honest Grounds final month. The stoutly bred
son of Medaglia d’Oro led all the way in which to defeat next-out winner Seattle Street by
3 3/4 lengths, incomes an 84 Beyer Pace Determine.

I ought to be aware, nonetheless, that
Sizzling Property benefited from setting a sluggish tempo. Fractions of :24.89, :49.65,
and 1:14.64 gave him a tactical benefit over Seattle Street, who was making an attempt
to shut from final place in a seven-horse discipline.

That is why I’ll oppose
Sizzling Property with #1 Kale’s Angel (2-1),
who has proven significantly extra early pace. The Smarty Jones is commonly gained in
gate-to-wire trend by sprinters stretching out in distance—assume Victory
Formation (2023), Gold Road (2020), Grey Try (2019), and Mourinho (2018)—and
I am assured Kale’s Angel can do precisely that.

Nobody would have recognized
Kale’s Angel as a possible Smarty Jones winner based mostly off his first 4 begins
on turf. The son of Champagne (G1) winner Complexity loved comparatively little
success, successful solely a five-furlong maiden particular weight whereas lacking the
trifecta in a pair of one-mile stakes.

However when Kale’s Angel
switched to filth for the 5 1/2-furlong Creation S. at Oaklawn final month, he ran
out of his pores and skin. Relishing the change in floor, Kale’s Angel tracked and
pressed fractions of :22.87 and :46.49 earlier than blazing his fifth furlong in
about :11.68 and his remaining sixteenth in :06.21 to attract off and dominate by 5
3/4 lengths in 1:04.40, incomes a 93 Beyer Pace Determine.

The type of Kale’s Angel’s
runaway win was flattered when runner-up Innovator returned to win a fast
six-furlong maiden particular weight at Oaklawn final week.

The Oaklawn filth has been
taking part in on the sluggish facet this meet; on the identical day Kale’s Angel gained the
Creation, older fillies and mares required 1:12.05 to finish a six-furlong
$50,000 allowance elective claimer. Kale’s Angel’s quick clocking is an indication of
severe expertise, and I imagine his 93 Beyer is nicely deserved.

There is not a lot tempo within the
Smarty Jones discipline, so I envision Kale’s Angel understanding a simple pacesetting
journey whereas stretching out in distance. I am unsure Sizzling Property has sufficient
early pace to strain Kale’s Angel, so the Creation winner has each probability to
turn out to be the seventh gate-to-wire Smarty Jones winner within the final 9 years.

On a associated be aware, the dearth
of pace within the Smarty Jones may compromise #8 Coal Battle (9-2), the third selection on the morning line and the
most achieved horse in Saturday’s discipline. He is undefeated in three begins on
filth and enters off stretch-running victories within the 6 1/2-furlong Jean Lafitte
S. and one-mile Remington Springboard Mile S.

The issue is, Coal Battle
benefited from a damaging pace duel between the 2 favorites when charging
late to win the Springboard Mile by half a size. The runner-up, Pace King,
was one of many early duelers. Coal Battle is bred for pace, so except he will get
a good tempo setup, I am involved his rally could falter within the remaining furlong
over the Oaklawn homestretch.

For the minor awards, I am
extra inclined to help Churchill Downs maiden winner #5 Mo High quality (5-1) or maybe #3
Optical (12-1), who lately battled to victory in a $50,000 starter
allowance racing one mile at Churchill.

Choices

1st: Kale’s Angel
2nd: Sizzling Property
third: Mo High quality
4th: Optical

Now it is your flip! Who do
you want within the Smarty Jones Stakes?
*****Need to check your handicapping abilities in opposition to fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Take a look at the Unlocking Winners contest web page—there is a new problem each week! (Please be aware: older contest entries could be discovered right here.)

J. Keeler Johnson (often known as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. A fantastic fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.



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