The North American Thoroughbred foal crop is formally a predominantly industrial product. Really foals born in 2021 in america and Canada first claimed this distinction, with 51% being supplied at the least as soon as in an public sale for U.S. foals and 52% in Canada.
Amongst some main breeders and bloodstock brokers, the response to reaching this milestone was common. They thought North America had crossed this threshold a very long time in the past.
“I believe it’s a significant statistic, however we’ve got recognized that we had been headed right here for a very long time. It’s a little stunning that we simply bought right here not too long ago,” mentioned Invoice Farish with Lane’s Finish. “I’m guessing there are extra breed-to-race locations within the regional markets. I believe most individuals in Kentucky breed for the industrial market.”
John Sikura, with Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, mentioned he anticipated the proportion to be a lot larger.
“It’s not a shock; that pattern has grown steadily and exponentially over time. If you happen to had informed me it was 75%, it could not have stunned me.”Join BloodHorse Every day
The share of foals bred in Kentucky that go to a sale is nearer to Sikura’s estimate, with 71% of the foals born in 2021 and 2022 being supplied at the least as soon as as a weanling, yearling, or 2-year-old.
“You would possibly see extra in Europe, the normal breed-to-race breeders, however America is a promoting market,” mentioned Sikura. “When Kentucky breeders purchase mares, they wish to breed a great horse, however they’re breeding a gross sales horse.”
Many business professionals level to economics as the important thing driver behind the shift towards breeding for the industrial market.
“The true breed-to-race folks at present, there are solely a handful,” mentioned Headley Bell with Mill Ridge Farm and Nicoma Bloodstock. “You might be seeing basis breeding applications that at the moment are sellers and that’s due to the associated fee. The economics have pushed us right here.”
Doug Cauthen, proprietor of Doug Cauthen Thoroughbred Administration and vice chairman of Three Chimneys Farm’s board, mentioned the potential price of elevating a horse after which figuring out whether or not it’s a viable racehorse can soar into the a whole lot of hundreds of {dollars}. The monetary burden might be substantial for an outfit breeding dozens of foals.
“If it price $10,000 to supply a horse after which one other $10,000 to see whether it is any good, then many extra folks would do it. However as a substitute it may well price $50,000 on the low finish and a whole lot of hundreds on the excessive finish. Most may spend $50,000-$60,000 to see how good they’re,” he mentioned.
“Fortunately we’ve got the purses we’ve got now as a result of it offers folks a hope of breaking even and perhaps even be worthwhile,” he continued. “The very best purses are in Kentucky and New York, and people are one of the best states to promote a horse in, too.”
The shift towards a predominantly industrial breeding business has attracted criticism. The pattern has typically been cited as one purpose Thoroughbred racehorses are making few begins. The common begins per runner in North America was 9.21 in 1980, dropping to 7.94 by 1990, and was 5.87 in 2023. Since 2000, the typical begins per runner averaged 6.29. The blame positioned on the industrial breeding business is that matings lean too closely on first-year sires due to their market attraction and fewer on stallions which can be confirmed sires of racehorses.
Sikura mentioned producing high quality racehorses is the objective of significant industrial breeders.
“I’ve heard the overall critique that we’re breeding to promote, not race. It’s a pleasant sound chew and like all fallacies it will get repeated sufficient that individuals see it as truth, however it has all the time been a puzzling assertion to me,” he mentioned. “Breeders wish to promote each horse nearly as good as they’ll after which they need them to go on to change into profitable racehorses. They wish to improve the worth of the pedigrees and have them replicate nicely on the farm the place they had been raised. You aren’t making an attempt to do one mutually unique of the opposite.”
Photograph: Fasig-Tipton PhotosThe 2024 Fasig-Tipton New York-Bred Yearling Sale
Ned Toffey, basic supervisor of Spendthrift Farm, mentioned the industrial market additionally has been unfairly cited as a contributing think about catastrophic accidents on the monitor.
“Folks point out an emphasis on racing 2-year-olds, an overemphasis on pace, and the affect of the industrial market. However these are additionally the three defining traits of the Australian racing market, which is prospering,” Toffey mentioned.
Prize cash in Australia has elevated 45% over the previous 5 years and the typical purse is now greater than AU$50,000 for the primary time, based on Aushorse, the advertising and marketing physique for the nation’s Thoroughbred racing business. Moreover, Australia considers the AU$5 million Golden Slipper (G1) and AU$2 million Blue Diamond Stakes (G1) for 2-year-olds amongst its breed-shaping races.
Pace additionally is very prized in Australia, which claims to have produced 16 of the world’s greatest sprinters over the past 20 years, based on Aushorse. Many of those high horses got here by a sale, as nicely, with 65% of Australian-bred group 1 winners in 2020-22 offered at public sale as yearlings.
“Clearly, I might like to see extra breed-to-race folks within the business, the house owners of main farms with substantial broodmare bands. I believe it could be a great factor for the breed,” mentioned Toffey. “I believe the larger inflow within the business, although, is with folks concerned in racing partnerships and taking smaller items of horses, just like the MyRacehorse mannequin. That’s clearly going to drive the industrial market.”
One unquestionably troubling pattern from the industrial market shift is declining foal crops within the regional markets, outlined as states aside from Kentucky. The U.S. foal crop shrank 12% from 2019 to 2022 however was down 16% in all different states mixed excluding Kentucky.
“It’s regarding for certain. I imply the business wants a wholesome Florida, wholesome New York, wholesome California—in every single place,” mentioned David O’Farrell, basic supervisor of Ocala Stud close to Ocala, Fla.
“It’s all about incomes potential and the incomes potential in Kentucky is rattling close to double what it could be if the identical foal was born in Florida,” continued Mike O’Farrell, with Ocala Stud and David’s father. “So I imply, why wouldn’t you foal them in Kentucky? Whenever you go to sale, they’ve twice as a lot incomes potential, so it stands to purpose they’re most likely going to deliver twice as a lot. That’s simply the best way it’s. And that’s hurting Maryland. It’s hurting New York, it’s hurting Florida, it’s hurting California. It’s hurting everyone.”
Sikura mentioned state-bred applications had been as soon as extra strong on account of alternate sources of income from casinos, slot machines, and card rooms however at the moment are in decline as a result of the underlying enterprise by no means grew.
“As soon as the states begin relying on backed applications with restrictive races written which can be captive to state applications, then they solely survive due to these applications—they aren’t actually advancing the enterprise,” he mentioned. “If you’re promoting within the open market in Kentucky, the state-bred horses don’t have the identical cachet.”
Farish mentioned it has change into a precedence amongst many business leaders to discover a higher mannequin for the regional markets.
“We have to discover a technique to reverse the pattern, notably within the larger racing states,” he mentioned. “The statistics on how huge of a component California is to the market are compelling. We can’t afford to see a state like California not succeed, when 20% of the wagering comes from California. A number of applications have been tried and only a few of them have labored. I believe there are lots of people looking for completely different solutions as a result of it’s too vital.”
Development in Commercially Bred North American Thoroughbred Foals
The next charts present the proportion of North American Thoroughbred foals that had been supplied at the least as soon as at a public public sale. Foals supplied at a number of gross sales are counted solely as soon as. Knowledge is thru the 2-year-olds in coaching gross sales of 2024.
Crop
12 months
U.S./Can
Foal Crop
U. S.
Foals
U.S.
No. Off.
%U.S.
Foals
CAN
Foals
CAN
No. Off.
% CAN
Foals
2023*
17,200
1,000
2022*
18,375
17,300
8,955
52%
1,075
572
53%
2021
18,763
17,779
9,084
51%
984
510
52%
2020
19,667
18,506
8,779
47%
1,161
582
50%
2019
20,307
19,128
8,848
46%
1,179
544
46%
*Projected counts. Crop 12 months foal counts exclude Puerto Rico.
Crop
12 months
U.S. Foals
Wnlg. Off.
(% Fls)
Yrlg Off.
(% Fls)
2YO Off.
(% Fls)
2023*
17,200
2022*
17,300
1,532 (8.9%)
7,880 (46%)
2,905 (17%)
2021
17,779
1415 (8.0%)
7,873 (44%)
3,271 (18%)
2020
18,506
1,202 (6.5%)
7,554 (41%)
3,120 (17%)
2019
19,128
1,602 (8.4%)
7,405 (39%)
2,919 (15%)
Keeneland September First-Crop Yearling Sires
The next desk consists of stallions with their first yearlings in 2024. Listed for every stallion is the 2022 stud price, variety of 2023 foals, 2023 Comparable Index (CI), variety of yearlings cataloged at Keeneland September by complete and by e book, 2023 weanling median (no. offered), and 2024 yearling median (no. offered). Public sale information is North American solely. Yearling sale statistics are full by Aug. 6, 2024.
Stallion (FCY)
2022
Price
’23
Fls
Complete
Cat.
Bk 1
Bk 2
Bk 3
Bk 4
Bk 5
Bk 6
’23
Cl
,23 Wnlg Med.
(No. Offered)
’24 Yrlg Med.
(No. Offered)
Basin
$7,500
54
8
0
0
0
0
0
8
1.04
$11,000 (7)
$97,500 (2)
Beau Liam
$6,000
108
40
0
0
4
10
13
13
1.21
$24,000 (21)
$53,500 (10)
By My Requirements
$7,500
58
8
0
0
0
0
4
4
0.91
$7,000 (5)
$103,000 (2)
Charlatan
$50,000
156
117
16
46
33
17
2
3
3
$177,500 (18)
$437,500 (6)
Code of Honor
$10,000
57
16
0
0
0
0
3
13
1.3
$13,500 (4)
Combatant
$7,500
42
7
0
0
0
0
0
7
0.89
$16,000 (6)
Core Beliefs
$7,500
16
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
1.06
$25,000 (3)
Important High quality
$75,000
116
79
9
34
24
8
2
2
2.64
$280,000 (5)
$225,000 (3)
Independence Corridor
$10,000
115
56
0
0
6
15
22
13
1.11
$31,000 (26)
$140,000 (3)
Knicks Go
$30,000
112
62
2
5
11
18
19
7
1.67
$41,000 (18)
$110,000 (3)
Identified Agenda
$10,000
106
39
0
0
2
6
15
16
1.15
$15,000 (16)
$75,000 (2)
Leinster
$5,000
42
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
0.99
$75,000 (1)
Lexitonian
$10,000
56
20
0
0
0
4
7
9
1.32
$27,500 (16)
$60,000 (5)
Maxfield
$40,000
112
77
4
16
31
20
5
1
1.77
$110,000 (11)
$220,000 (3)
Mo Forza
$9,000
69
1
0
0
0
0
1
0
1.05
Modernist
$10,000
82
20
0
1
0
3
4
12
0.91
$11,500 (14)
$1,200 (3)
Raging Bull
$10,000
81
27
0
1
1
5
7
13
1.22
$17,000 (9)
$27,500 (2)
Rock Your World
$10,000
136
46
0
1
2
5
16
22
1.17
$20,000 (17)
$45,000 (7)
Silver State
$20,000
123
79
1
3
13
28
27
7
1.59
$36,000 (20)
$50,000 (1)
Tacitus
$10,000
119
51
0
2
4
12
19
14
1.37
$30,000 (28)
$113,500 (6)
Uncle Chuck
$6,500
67
9
0
0
1
0
4
4
1.2
$30,000 (1)
$65,000 (2)
Yaupon
$30,000
168
98
3
27
32
25
8
3
1.59
$100,000 (36)