The DraftKings Travers Stakes serves as a significant inflection level within the season for 3-year-olds, therefore the nickname “Mid-Summer season Derby” that signifies the 1 ¼-mile Saratoga race’s significance.
The Travers normally attracts a deep, aggressive subject, however this 12 months feels a bit completely different with the hype meter climbing because of the presence of celebrity filly Thorpedo Anna. The Longines Kentucky Oaks winner provides to a subject that boasts Belmont Stakes and NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes winner Dornoch, champion Fierceness, Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve runner-up Sierra Leone, and unbeaten stakes winner Unmatched Knowledge amongst a subject of eight.
Not solely is the 2024 Travers a compelling horse race, however storylines abound.
Dornoch can all however cement champion 3-year-old male honors with a win for a partnership that features retired Main League Baseball star Jayson Werth. Thorpedo Anna tackles males after runaway Grade 1 wins within the Kentucky Oaks, the DK Horse Acorn Stakes, and the Teaching Membership American Oaks. Final 12 months’s champion 2-year-old male, Fierceness, has turn into the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of racing, as able to a dominant efficiency as he’s of a disappointment. Sierra Leone, as soon as thought of the division chief, has solely himself responsible for the shortage of a career-defining win on his résumé however can rectify that on Saturday at 6:10 p.m. ET.
Listed below are 5 questions that should be answered within the 2024 Travers, which is shaping as much as be THE race of the summer season:
Will the actual Fierceness please rise up? When Fierceness runs his “A” race, he’s the quickest 3-year-old on this 12 months’s class. The issue is, it’s nearly unimaginable to guess if and when he’ll unfurl a monster effort. Certain, you may have a look at the previous performances and spot he has alternated race with a nasty one and, based mostly upon that sample, he’s due for a dud within the Travers. However I don’t assume it’s that easy. Even proprietor Mike Repole mentioned this week that it’s tough to foretell what kind of race his colt will run in a given stakes. I assume that is the actual Fierceness, a racehorse with dazzling capacity however maddening inconsistency.
If I needed to guess, I’d say possibly there’s a 30% likelihood final 12 months’s champion 2-year-old male runs his race, which might make him the most certainly winner within the subject. Velocity figures point out an “A” race sends Fierceness to the winner’s circle, however I’ll fade him right here due to the 1 ¼-mile distance, the anticipated brief value, and the presence of a number of different early pace horses.
How good is the unbeaten runner Unmatched Knowledge? The brief and noncommittal reply is: I feel he’s actually good. Sadly for Unmatched Knowledge, the Travers isn’t a stakes race for actually good, it’s for the perfect 3-year-old filth horses on the planet on the season’s midpoint.
Whether or not or not Unmatched Knowledge matches with the likes of Dornoch, Fierceness, Thorpedo Anna, and Sierra Leone is the way more pertinent query. Primarily based on Equibase Velocity Figures, Unmatched Knowledge is true on par with the highest runners. His Beyer Velocity Figures, alternatively, point out he nonetheless has some catching as much as do on Fierceness, Dornoch, and Sierra Leone. But with solely three races on his résumé, together with a one-length win in his stakes debut within the Curlin Stakes, there’s vital cause to consider there’s room to enhance. If he does take a step ahead, Unmatched Knowledge is a win candidate.
They are saying “tempo makes the race,” so what are we when it comes to a Travers tempo state of affairs? There was a lot discuss how Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, champion Fierceness, and star filly Thorpedo Anna all boast tactical pace and the tempo might be frisky within the Travers… and that’s true. There are also others within the Travers with early pace, such because the aforementioned Unmatched Knowledge and Ohio Derby winner Batten Down. In actual fact, the latter posted back-to-back dominant front-running wins earlier than settling off the tempo within the Jim Dandy Stakes Introduced by Mohegan Solar and fading late in a third-place end behind Fierceness and Sierra Leone. It might not shock me to see Batten Down’s jockey Junior Alvarado be very aggressive early within the Travers and problem Dornoch for the early lead. That in all probability could be Batten Down’s greatest shot to win.
No one needs to lose the Travers within the opening quarter-mile, however I do consider the tempo might be brisk for a 1 ¼-mile race and there might be a number of runners preventing for the lead or to safe an excellent place tucked in simply behind the pacesetter(s).
That would set the Travers up properly for stalker Company Energy, the runner-up to Unmatched Knowledge within the Curlin Stakes, in addition to closers Honor Marie and Sierra Leone.
Will Thorpedo Anna wind up leaving the beginning gate as the favourite? There isn’t a doubt the Kentucky Oaks winner using a dominant three-race successful streak – all in Grade 1 races in opposition to 3-year-old fillies – will take in a ton of betting {dollars} as a powerful sentimental favourite going through males for the primary time.
Nevertheless, I feel Dornoch’s back-to-back wins within the Belmont Stakes and Haskell plus Fierceness’s potential for brilliance will result in one in all them being favored. I do consider it will likely be shut within the betting amongst Dornoch (5-2 on the morning line), Fierceness (3-1 morning line), Thorpedo Anna (3-1 morning line), and Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (7-2 morning line). It is a rattling good horse race!
My guess on the ultimate odds is Dornoch at about 2-1, Thorpedo Anna and Fierceness at about 5-2, and Sierra Leone at 5-1 or so.
Can Sierra Leone places all of it collectively and earn an announcement win? Sierra Leone has gained some massive races, little doubt, together with a Grade 1 victory within the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, however he got here up a nostril brief within the Kentucky Derby after being in splendid place within the stretch after which within the Belmont Stakes when third as the favourite. The Gun Runner colt has had his points lugging in throughout the stretch run that price him within the Triple Crown races, however a Travers win would certainly wipe away a lot, if not all, of that disappointment.
I used to be inspired by Sierra Leone’s runner-up end to Fierceness within the Jim Dandy Stakes. He made an attention-grabbing transfer on the flip to rally into competition from final and didn’t react negatively when Batten Down got here in on him and crowded him in early stretch. No, he didn’t catch Fierceness within the Jim Dandy, however Fierceness had a dream journey in that race tucked in simply behind a average tempo. With no less than three or 4 Travers runners preferring to be on or close to the lead, the Travers may arrange a lot better for Sierra Leone. He’s very per three wins, three seconds, and one third in seven races so if he runs straight within the Saratoga stretch, sure, I consider he’ll earn his marquee victory within the Travers.
THE PICK: Sierra Leone
BETTING STRATEGY: Play Sierra Leone to win and on prime of Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Company Energy within the trifecta.
TRIFECTA: 2-1-7
