A small however high quality subject is anticipated for Saturday’s $1.25 million, Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
The essential 1 1/8-mile Highway to the Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve qualifier boasts an extended and wealthy historical past. Reviewing latest historical past of the Blue Grass may also help us handicap the 2026 version by revealing tendencies and tendencies widespread amongst previous winners.
Listed here are 5 handicapping angles to remember when betting the 2026 Blue Grass Stakes:
Keep away from betting front-runners
After being contested on an all-weather observe from 2007-2014, the Blue Grass returned to dust in 2015. Since then, not a single Blue Grass winner has held the lead after the opening half-mile. 4 winners had been racing in second place at that juncture, so pace isn’t solely ineffective, however gate-to-wire winners have been missing.
12 months
Winner
Place after first 1/2-mile
½-mile &¾-mile occasions
2025
Burnham Sq.
seventh by 9.5 lengths (7 starters)
:46.95, 1:11.96 (quick)
2024
Sierra Leone
ninth by 8.75 lengths (10 starters)
:46.48, 1:10.83 (quick)
2023
Tapit Trice
4th by 2.5 lengths (11 starters)
:48.04, 1:12.57 (quick)
2022
Zandon
tenth by 4.5 lengths (11 starters)
:48.39, 1:12.72 (good)
2021
Important High quality
2nd by 0.5 lengths (9 starters)
:48.21, 1:12.08 (quick)
2020
Artwork Collector
third by 1.5 lengths (13 starters)
:46.61, 1:10.63 (quick)
2019
Vekoma
2nd by a head (14 starters)
:47.03, 1:11.55 (quick)
2018
Good Magic
fifth by 4 ¼ lengths (14 starters)
:47.40, 1:11.89 (quick)
2017
Irap
2nd by 1 size (7 starters)
:48.34, 1:12.36 (quick)
2016
Brody’s Trigger
eleventh by 10.75 lengths (14 starters)
:46.75, 1:11.44 (quick)
2015
Carpe Diem
2nd by a head (8 starters)
:48.05, 1:12.18 (quick)
The highest betting selections carry out strongly
Favorites and short-priced runners run nicely within the Blue Grass. Six of the final 11 winners (55%) began because the betting favourite, whereas three different winners (27%) began because the second selection. As well as, 29 out of 33 top-three finishers within the Blue Grass since 2015 (88%) began at single-digit odds.
Respect horses transport in from Florida
Horses who final raced at both Gulfstream Park or Tampa Bay Downs in Florida usually issue within the Blue Grass. Florida shippers have received six of the final 11 editions of the Blue Grass (55%), and so they’ve secured 15 of the final 33 top-three finishes (45%).
The Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby has been a very productive prep, producing three Blue Grass winners and three runners-up since 2015.
Favor sons of Grade 1-winning route racers
Ten of the final 11 Blue Grass winners (91%) had been sired by stallions who received no less than one Grade 1 racing 1 1/8 miles or farther. The lone exception, Zandon, was sired by Upstart, who recorded top-three finishes in a trio of Grade 1 races at 1 1/8 miles.
Graded stakes expertise is essential
Every of the final 11 Blue Grass winners had beforehand competed in no less than one graded stakes. Eight of the final 11 (73%) had beforehand received a graded stakes.
Conclusions
As of Sunday, 5 horses are into consideration to start out within the Blue Grass. Most fail to match a number of of the handicapping angles we’ve outlined, however Additional Ado is a putting exception.
Additional Ado has by no means held the lead after the opening half-mile of a race. He’s transport in from Florida after ending an in depth second within the Grade 3 ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby. Final fall, he received the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Membership Stakes, proving his capacity to win on the graded stakes stage. And he’s a son of Gun Runner, who received a number of Grade 1 races working 1 1/8 miles or longer.
Throw within the reality Additional Ado appears more likely to begin as the primary or second betting selection on Saturday, and he matches all 5 of the historic angles we’ve outlined. Historical past suggests Additional Ado is the probably winner of the 2026 Blue Grass Stakes.
Benefit from the race!
