An evaluation of Racing Publish’s Topspeed (TS) in UK Nationwide Hunt Racing, Half 2
That is the second article of two wanting on the efficiency of the Racing Publish’s pace rankings, referred to as Topspeed, in Nationwide Hunt races within the UK, writes Dave Renham. Within the first piece, which you’ll be able to learn right here, I checked out a wide range of Topspeed stats together with win charges for various score positions, percentages of rivals overwhelmed (PRB), and a few normal stats for top-rated and second-rated runners.
Introduction
On this concluding half I’ll dig deeper into the efficiency of top-rated runners, wanting first at non-handicaps after which at handicaps. As with the primary article, for essentially the most half when speaking concerning the Topspeed Rankings I’ll use the abbreviation TS.
The subsequent paragraph is principally a carbon copy of what I wrote within the first article, because it provides some background info relating to the TS rankings. Be happy to skip it you probably have learn the primary one.
At the beginning, TS rankings are the Racing Publish’s Velocity Rankings. The uncooked TS determine is a measure of the pace a horse achieved in a selected race. It’s amended barely contemplating issues like distance, weight carried, and the bottom situations. Basically the TS is calculated by evaluating a horse’s time with a regular time for a similar course and distance. The TS determine we see within the Geegeez Racecard are referred to as adjusted TS rankings with the primary adjustment made for weight carried within the present race. I imagine the TS handicapper additionally tweaks this adjusted TS score for the present race situations. The adjusted TS figures we see within the Racecard are based mostly on the perfect uncooked TS efficiency previously 12 months. These performances should have occurred in the identical ‘Race Code’, so for NH racing, previous hurdle race TS uncooked rankings might be used for hurdle races solely, whereas previous chase TS rankings might be used for chases solely.
My focus for this text, as acknowledged earlier is UK Nationwide Hunt racing, and I’ve ignored hunter chases as many of those horses have been working in level to factors; I’m additionally excluding NH Flat races run on the AW. Information has been taken from January 1st 2019 to December thirty first 2025, with the revenue/loss figures calculated to Betfair SP (BSP) much less 2% fee.
Non-Handicaps
By TS Rank
I need to start by specializing in non-handicaps races and I’ll begin in the same technique to final time by wanting on the win percentages (strike charges) for various TS-ranked runners in non-handicap races.
We noticed within the first article that for the ‘all races’ information the graph confirmed robust correlation between rank place and strike fee. Let’s see if that has occurred when specializing in non-handicaps solely. When it comes to understanding the graph, the horizontal axis is labelled from 1 which stands for the top-rated runner, 2 is the second rated and so forth:
The win strike fee for TS top-rated runners has been a powerful 31% in these non-handicaps with a major hole to the second rated on 19.5%. Arguably extra importantly, the win percentages have correlated positively as soon as extra with the TS ranked positions. Now we have the left to proper sliding scale that’s the ‘very best’.
Every method strike charges for particular person positions correlate additionally, displaying the identical sliding scale. For the report, the top-rated runners in non-handicaps have completed in a win or positioned place over 56% of the time. Under are the PRBs (Share of Rivals Crushed) by TS rank:
We will see excessive PRBs for each the top-rated (0.70) and second prime (0.61), whereas we get related low figures from sixth downwards (0.43, 0.42 or 0.41).
Right here is the report of each TS top-rated runner in non-handicaps since 2019:
A small revenue would have been achieved in non-handicaps backing all top-rated TS runners ‘blind’. Let’s now break up this information into totally different areas or sections.
Race Kind – TS top-rated runners
Firstly, by way of non-handicaps, I’m going to have a look at totally different race varieties to see if the TS top-rated runner fared any higher in both hurdle races, chases or NH Flat races.
Regardless of having the bottom win share, NH Flat races supplied the perfect returns for TS top-rated runners in non-handicaps. An ROI of a smidge above 12p within the £ was spectacular. High-rated chases additionally turned a small revenue, and at a really wholesome one in three strike fee, too.
Sticking with NH Flat races, the TS top-rated runners completed within the black in six of the final seven years. The annual returns (ROI) are displayed within the graph beneath:
2022 was the one dropping yr, however general, the NH Flat outcomes for top-rated runners have been good and constant.
Race Class – TS top-rated runners
A take a look at race class subsequent beginning with a desk:
The very best degree of race (Class 1) endured the poorest outcomes by some margin. These races delivered the bottom PRB of 0.60 and losses in extra of 13p within the £. All Class 1 races have proven related ranges of loss: Grade 1s had been down round 11p within the £, Grade 2s round 13.5p and Listed races a whopping 16p within the £.
Conversely, Class 2 races loved the perfect earnings, though the underside line was skewed considerably by a BSP 90.0 winner. That mentioned, shorter priced TS top-rated runners had an excellent report in Class 2 non-handicaps. These priced 2/1 or shorter received 69 races from 114 for a superb strike fee of 60.5%, producing a revenue of £28.64 (ROI +25.1%).
Class 3 contests had been additionally form to those 2/1 or shorter priced runners, hitting a 57% win fee and returns of over 10 pence within the £.
Market Rank – TS top-rated runners
Within the first article I checked out market rank throughout all races. Listed below are the splits solely for non-handicaps relating to the TS top-rated runners:
There was no clear sample right here sadly by way of revenue / loss. I’m barely stunned on the comparatively poor returns for second favourites particularly contemplating that favourites had been marginally worthwhile.
Age – TS top-rated runners
A take a look at the age splits now:
Three-year-olds carried out effectively and returned a tidy revenue though a couple of large priced winners helped. Nevertheless, it ought to be famous that 3yo favourites additionally proved worthwhile due to 84 wins from 147 (SR 55.1%) for a surplus of £20.45 (ROI +13.9%). On the flip facet, 8yos and up had a comparatively poor report dropping 12p within the £.
Run Fashion – TS top-rated runners
Once we look at run type, the final sample sees entrance runners rating extra usually than outstanding racers who in prove carry out mid-division runners, whereas maintain up horses are inclined to have the bottom win charges. Under are the win strike charges by run type group for TS top-rated runners in non-handicaps:
The graph completely aligns to the stereotype: horses which led did greatest by way of strike fee, and if we had been capable of predict their run type pre-race we’d have basked in returns of over 12p within the £. Examine this to top-rated runners which had been held up – they collectively misplaced a large 35p within the £.
Handicaps
By TS Rank
Time to modify to handicaps now and the efficiency of the TS top-rated runners in these races.
Earlier than that, I need to share the win percentages (strike charges) for various ranked runners:
High-rated runners once more secured the perfect strike fee, however solely simply. When it comes to every method strike charges the top-rated runners nonetheless got here out prime on 38.1%, with second rated subsequent on 36.3%. The remaining positions within the rankings continued the standard sliding scale displaying optimistic correlation with the win charges.
When it comes to PRBs the splits had been as follows:
The PRBs observe the identical sample as anticipated, though the highest three rated positions had been all inside 0.02 of one another.
It’s time now to have a look at the report of each single TS top-rated runner in handicaps since 2019. The figures make for optimistic studying:
We see a really small revenue, however a revenue nonetheless, from merely backing the top-rated Topspeed horse in all handicaps. I am certain we’ll be capable to enhance on that as we delve deeper.
Race Kind – TS top-rated runners
There was fairly a distinction by way of revenue and loss between race codes. Handicap chases noticed TS top-rated runners do extraordinarily effectively and, though they’ve had a sprinkling of huge priced winners, their report on the shorter finish of the market was spectacular too. Specializing in TS top-rated runners priced 11/1 or shorter in handicap chases, the next totals emerge:
These are a really stable set of metrics, and it ought to be famous that for this particular cohort, 5 of the seven years would have turned a revenue.
Race Class – TS top-rated runners
Race class is subsequent up and the outcomes from 2019 to 2025 had been as follows:
Simply as we noticed with non-handicap races, top-rated runners in Class 1 handicaps struggled. In actual fact, their report was very poor with a win fee of lower than 7% and losses of over 30p within the £. Listed races had been the worst performers inside this cohort with simply two wins from 73 top-rated runners. I’m not certain why Listed races got here out that dangerous, notably when Class 2 races once more noticed the perfect returns, mirroring what we noticed with the non-handicap outcomes. There have been 5 profitable years out of seven at this class degree.
Market Rank – TS top-rated runners
Listed below are the market rank splits for handicap races solely relating to the TS top-rated runners:
Favourites successfully broke even with second favs producing a really small loss. The worth appears to have been with these ranked third to fifth within the betting market, although the highest 5 mixed confirmed a good-looking revenue and a stable ROI. As soon as we hit sixth or increased, efficiency and returns have dipped considerably.
Age – TS top-rated runners
Onto the age stats now. Right here is how they’ve panned out throughout the time interval (I’ve ignored 3yos this time as there have been solely 23 qualifiers):
This has been a little bit of a blended bag with no clear patterns apart from the 9yo+ group having the bottom PRB determine by a way in addition to the bottom win strike fee. It will likely be troublesome to make use of these stats to our benefit so it could be greatest to disregard age with any top-rated runners we could be seeking to again sooner or later.
Run Fashion – TS top-rated runners
As with the non-handicappers, let me share the win strike charges inside their particular run type teams:
There are not any surprises right here with the bars dropping down as we go from led (left) to held up (proper). If we had been capable of predict pre-race the run type of each single TS top-rated runner in handicaps, we’d be retired now! The splits regarded like this:
That is simply one other instance concerning the significance of place early in a race – even in NH races.
**
Effectively, that’s about all for now. In conclusion, I hope these two articles assist to level you in the correct route relating to the TS rankings revealed on geegeez racecards. TS top-rated runners have a powerful report general and, based mostly on previous outcomes, there was loads of worth available underneath numerous circumstances. Hats off to the TS crew on the Publish – they’ve been doing an excellent job.
As soon as the flat turf season will get underway, I’ll purpose to do some additional digging and share TS stats for that code. The all-weather and bounce racing outcomes have stunned me a little bit, and in a great way. It will likely be fascinating to see if we discover related efficiency on the extent.
– DR
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