An evaluation of Racing Put up’s Topspeed (TS) on the All-Climate, Half 2
That is the second article of two wanting on the efficiency of the Racing Put up’s pace scores, referred to as Topspeed, in races on the all-weather (AW), writes Dave Renham. Within the first piece, which you’ll be able to learn right here, I checked out a wide range of normal Topspeed stats earlier than specializing in non-handicap races. On this concluding half, the highlight falls on handicap races and, to any extent further, I’ll use the abbreviation TS when speaking in regards to the Topspeed scores.
Introduction
The subsequent paragraph is principally a carbon copy of what I wrote within the first article because it offers some background info concerning the TS scores. Be at liberty to skip it if in case you have learn the primary one.
The uncooked TS determine is a measure of the pace a horse achieved in a specific race. It’s amended barely contemplating issues like distance, weight carried, and the bottom circumstances. Basically the TS is calculated by evaluating a horse’s time with an ordinary time for a similar course and distance. The TS determine we see within the Geegeez Racecard are referred to as adjusted TS scores with the principle adjustment made for weight carried within the present race. I consider the TS handicapper additionally tweaks this adjusted TS score for the present race circumstances. The adjusted TS figures we see within the Racecard are primarily based on the very best uncooked TS efficiency up to now 12 months. These performances should have occurred in the identical ‘Race Code’, so for all-weather races solely previous TS uncooked figures in AW races have thought-about. Likewise for turf flat races, solely previous turf flat uncooked TS figures shall be thought-about. For the jumps previous hurdle race TS uncooked scores shall be used for hurdle races solely, whereas previous chase TS scores shall be used for chases solely.
As I discussed within the first paragraph this text examines all-weather racing analysing the efficiency of the TS figures in handicap races solely. The time-frame covers January 1st, 2019, to November thirtieth, 2025, and it consists of each UK and Irish racing with any revenue or loss being calculated to BSP much less 2% fee.
Total Efficiency of TS in All-Climate Handicaps
I famous within the first piece how it’s typically thought-about that, for a set of scores to be efficient, the win charge is vital. The highest-rated runner ought to have the best win proportion, regularly decreasing for the remaining runners. Ideally, the top-rated runner may also be the very best performer when it comes to returns. Nonetheless, it is very important level out that no matter how good a set of public scores is, be they pace or form-based scores, it’s unreasonable anticipate the top-rated runner to safe a blind revenue over an extended time frame.
Let’s begin in an analogous option to final time by taking a look at win percentages (strike charges) for various rated runners in handicap races. This covers all such races on an AW floor over the interval of research. We noticed in article 1 that for the ‘all races’ knowledge the graph confirmed the proper kind of correlation between the score place and the strike charge. Let’s see if that has occurred when specializing in handicaps solely. When it comes to understanding the graph, the horizontal axis is labelled from 1, the top-rated runner, to 2, the second rated, and so forth:
The win strike charge for TS top-rated runners has been slightly below 15% and, extra importantly, the win percentages have correlated positively as soon as extra with the TS ordinal rank. We’ve got the left to proper sliding scale that’s the ‘perfect’.
If we take a look at the Every Means (win & positioned) strike charges, we’ve an analogous sample:
The highest-rated runner has the best proportion as soon as extra, albeit solely simply, and the sliding scale is replicated as soon as once more.
The third graph appears to be like at Share of Rivals Overwhelmed (PRB). With the ability to share these is down to a different of the current Geegeez additions of getting PRB figures obtainable within the Question Software Outcomes Abstract. Listed below are the splits:
We are able to see precisely the identical kind of correlation as soon as once more so it appears subsequently, that in handicap races, the TS scores have been very correct when it comes to predicting the general efficiency of the horse in relation to their TS ranked positions.
Prime Rated TS Runners in AW Handicaps
For the rest of the article my most important focus would be the handicap race efficiency of the TS top-rated horses to see if any optimistic or certainly detrimental angles might be discovered. Firstly, let me share the file of each single TS top-rated runner because the starting of 2019:
We see a near break-even state of affairs, which is a wonderful start line. Let me now break down the TS top-rated efficiency in additional element.
Annual strike charges – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps
When it comes to delving deeper I wish to begin wanting on the TS top-rated runners in all-weather handicaps by evaluating their annual win strike charges and win & positioned (Every manner) strike charges to see how they matched up.
Each the win and EW strike charges have been extraordinarily constant and this has additionally been the case with the yearly PRB figures which have ranged from a excessive of 0.59 to a low of 0.56.
Market Rank – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps
Beneath is a desk highlighting the efficiency of the top-rated runners when it comes to market place / rank. The splits over the interval of research have been as follows:
Favourites made a small loss however these ranked two to 4 within the betting market all edged into revenue. Returns have been barely much less good when horses have been fifth or larger in betting.
One potential concern when taking a look at knowledge throughout all costs is that some backside strains might be skewed by winners at huge BSP costs. Curiously, although, out of the 2445 TS top-rated winners solely 5 had a BSP value above 50.0 (52.07, 54.15, 61.52, 126.19, 145.1). Even so, as within the first piece I’m going to make use of a value cap hereafter in case any of these greater priced winners skewed sure findings. For non-handicaps my value cap was 10/1 (ISP), for handicaps I believe we must always go barely longer at 12/1 (ISP).
Intercourse – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
That is an space I really feel is all the time value trying out. The splits over this timeframe have been thus:
These stats don’t correlate with the same old male/feminine stats discovered on the AW the place males are likely to win extra typically inside their group than females. Right here we’ve witnessed a special situation the place feminine TS top-rated runners priced 12/1 or much less have been excellent worth going again to 2019. TS top-rated feminine runners aged 4 and 5 have finished notably nicely, combining to win 19.8% of the time (280 wins from 1416) for a wholesome revenue of £295.21 (ROI +20.8%).
Age of horse – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
Onto the age splits now. We all know from the earlier paragraph that the feminine four- and five-year-olds carried out nicely, however they solely made up about 25% of the whole runners for each these age teams. Let me share the total breakdown combining male runners with feminine runners:
Every particular person age from three to 6 made a blind revenue which is fascinating, nevertheless it was clear that when we bought to 7yos and older the efficiency dipped markedly, regardless of nonetheless being top-rated. Losses of 16p within the £ are steep at the very best of instances, so TS top-rated runners aged 7 or older are in all probability finest swerved sooner or later.
Course – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
Do the TS top-rated runners in all-weather handicaps have related information at every course? Let’s evaluate the PRBs first:
The Irish observe of Dundalk has seen the strongest PRB figures, and I’m wondering will that correlate to higher returns?
*Southwell knowledge primarily based on outcomes on the tapeta floor which had its first race in December 2021.
Don’t be fooled when seeing that Dundalk had the bottom strike charge; their races had the most important common subject dimension in contrast with all of the programs. There have been blind earnings for Dundalk and for 3 different programs, with solely Kempton TS top-rated runners producing disappointing losses. I’m not positive why the Kempton figures have been so disappointing in contrast with the others.
Race Distance – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
A take a look at the outcomes throughout completely different distances now. The figures have been as follows:
TS top-rated runners carried out nicely on the minimal distance, which can be as a result of 5 furlong handicaps are typically run at an excellent clip and therefore pace scores must be pretty correct. All in all, although, the desk means that pace scores work to an analogous stage no matter distance. [The six furlong data looks an anomaly and is hard to explain otherwise]
Area Measurement – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
My subsequent query was may something be gleaned from the info for various subject sizes? It was a slight shock to me that the variety of runners in a race did appear to make a distinction. Beneath are the ISP A/E indices for various subject sizes:
As might be seen, the higher worth has clearly been in smaller sized fields so far as the TS top-rated all-weather handicap runners have been involved. This was additionally mirrored within the revenue and loss figures because the desk under exhibits:
Primarily based on the previous few years it does appear that fields with eight or fewer runners present the very best worth in the case of the TS top-rated runners. The efficiency of the 6-8 runner group was extraordinarily good.
Headgear – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
The splits between the variety of TS top-rated runners that wore some form of headgear / gear and those who didn’t have been virtually the identical. Therefore, I believed it was a good suggestion to see what the outcomes have been for every group. They’re proven within the desk under:
The numbers clearly favour horses that didn’t put on any headgear securing a greater return – over 8p within the £ – coupled with a 3% higher win charge. That is one thing to notice for the long run I really feel.
Run Type – TS top-rated runners in AW handicaps (ISP 12/1 or much less)
After I appeared on the run type for TS top-rated in all-weather non-handicaps, I famous the normal edge to extra outstanding kinds of runner. Therefore, let me check out the win strike charges (inside their particular run type teams) to see if the same old sample has been repeated:
When it comes to win charge early leaders have finished finest, albeit the hole between them and outstanding racers has been nearer than we often see. There was a transparent dip in strike charge from outstanding racers right down to horses that raced midfield or have been held up.
As I discussed within the first article, we have no idea pre-race what the run type of every horse shall be and therefore any revenue/loss knowledge shared on this part is basically hypothetical. Nonetheless, if we had been in a position to predict which TS top-rated runners took the early lead in handicaps when priced 12/1 or much less, they might have made a good BSP revenue of £359.41 to £1 stage stakes. This equated to a formidable return of over 17 pence within the £. Distinguished racers made a revenue additionally with returns of simply over 6p within the £.
I wish to share the A/E indices subsequent for the TS top-rated runners when it comes to run type. They’re proven within the graph under:
Early leaders / entrance runners have provided the very best worth, surpassing the 1.00 determine. Certainly, these A/E indices are calculated from ISP so the BSP A/E index could be round 1.16 which might be thought-about wonderful worth.
What was particularly fascinating was after I appeared on the efficiency of TS top-rated horses that had led early in 5f handicaps. If we had identified pre-race which TS-top rated runners would have led in these sprints, we might have seen 104 winners from 308 runners (SR 33.8%) for an enormous revenue of £330.41 (ROI +107.3%); PRB 0.69.
Lastly, one final run type reality value sharing is that once we take a look at all runners priced 12/1 or much less roughly 14.3% of those runners led early. In 5f handicaps nonetheless, the TS top-rated runner led early 20% of the time. Therefore, when attempting to foretell the entrance runner in 5f handicaps, the TS top-rated horse will lead rather more typically than these runners TS ranked 2 or decrease. Combining this info with the Geegeez tempo rating totals for every 5f handicap ought to allow us to enhance our possibilities of predicting the entrance runner extra typically – ought to we want to try this.
*
Earlier than embarking on this analysis, I had not anticipated the Topspeed top-rated runners to have carried out so nicely in all-weather handicaps. For a set of public scores, the top-rated efficiency has been extraordinarily good. I, for one, will take extra inventory of them sooner or later, particularly on the sand; and the wonder is that they seem proper the place I want them, on the Geegeez racecard!
Within the close to future, I’ll dive into Topspeed scores for NH racing. This may occur in all probability someday in January 2026. Till then…
– DR
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