Betting on an Upset in the CCA Oaks

By J. Keeler Johnson (“Keelerman”) Twitter: @J_Keelerman


I had initially deliberate to
handicap the $1 million Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park for this week’s version
of Unlocking Winners. However with the sector nonetheless in flux (key contenders Fierceness
and Dornoch are potential to scratch), it is tough to choose this
far prematurely.

As a substitute, we’ll have a look at the
different huge race of the weekend, the $500,000 Teaching Membership American Oaks (G1),
in addition to one other wealthy Monmouth fixture, the $500,000 Molly Pitcher (G3).

Teaching Membership American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga

Solely 5 fillies will face
the starter within the historic Teaching Membership American Oaks, and the heavy favourite
to win the 1 1/8-mile contest is #3
Thorpedo Anna (1-2). The speedy filly has dominated all three of her begins
this 12 months by daylight margins, taking the Fantasy (G2) by 4 lengths, the
Kentucky Oaks (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths, and the Acorn (G1) by 5 1/2 lengths.

I used to be significantly impressed
with Thorpedo Anna’s Acorn efficiency. She pressed champion two-year-old filly
Simply F Y I by stiff splits of :23.53, :46.75, and 1:10.24, then took over
when Simply F Y I pale to defeat a robust subject, and she or he did all this regardless of
shedding a shoe throughout the race.

Nonetheless, I do see one potential
chink in Thorpedo Anna’s armor. Her best weapon is her excessive cruising speed-she’s
in a position to set or press robust fractions and nonetheless kick on down the homestretch.
However Thorpedo Anna is the one apparent velocity horse within the Teaching Membership American
Oaks subject, and I am involved that as a substitute of dashing out to run her rivals off
their toes, she’ll set a sluggish tempo and make it straightforward for them to maintain up.

A sluggish tempo might play to
the strengths of #1 Candied (5-2),
who received the Alcibiades (G1) and completed third by lower than one size within the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) final 12 months. Candied struggled in her
three-year-old debut, ending fourth within the Ashland (G1) off a five-month
layoff. However she bounced again impressively in her second begin of the season, trouncing
a succesful group of older horses within the 1 1/16-mile Girl’s Secret S. at Monmouth
Park.

Within the Girl’s Secret,
Candied confronted solely three rivals and at one level trailed sluggish splits of :24.30
and :49.66. However she superior to problem by six furlongs in 1:14.18 and
completed up strongly from there, incomes an attention-grabbing 107 Brisnet Late Tempo
score whereas drawing off to win by 4 1/2 lengths. The subsequent two runners throughout
the end line, Honor D Girl and Saddle Up Jessie, returned to run 1-2 within the latest
Delaware H. (G2) forward of 2023 Teaching Membership American Oaks winner Moist Paint.

Candied’s Girl’s Secret
triumph yielded a 99 Beyer Pace Determine, the identical quantity Thorpedo Anna posted
within the Acorn. If Candied is ready to stick near a sluggish tempo at Saratoga, I
consider she’ll have a shot to outkick Thorpedo Anna down the homestretch and
give coach Todd Pletcher a record-extending ninth victory within the Teaching
Membership American Oaks.

Molly Pitcher (G3) at Monmouth Park

I suppose an argument could be
made that #6 Idiomatic (3-5) is
weak as a heavy favourite within the 1 1/16-mile Molly Pitcher. Final 12 months’s
champion older grime feminine is exiting a defeat because the odds-on favourite within the
Ogden Phipps (G1) at Saratoga, so perhaps her type has slipped a bit of.

However I do not see it that means.
Idiomatic ran properly underneath hostile circumstances within the Ogden Phipps. A
less-than-perfect break left her racing broad towards a sluggish tempo set by 2023
Alabama (G1) winner Randomized, runner-up by half a size to Idiomatic within the
2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1). Pace horses racing inside presumably had an
benefit on the day of the Ogden Phipps, but Idiomatic practically overcame that
impediment, ending quick (remaining three furlongs in about :36 4/5) to fall a head
shy of catching Randomized. Reigning champion three-year-old filly and 2023
Kentucky Oaks winner Fairly Mischievous completed one other 4 1/2 lengths again in
third place.

Idiomatic began 2024 on a
excessive observe, trouncing Fairly Mischievous and others by 3 3/4 lengths within the La
Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs, which marked her fourth Grade 1 win. The
Molly Pitcher subject has come up a lot lighter than the Ogden Phipps, and I see
no purpose why Idiomatic cannot bounce again at a brief value. When you’re taking part in
multi-race wagers on Haskell day, I strongly advocate singling Idiomatic.

Now it is your flip! Who do
you want this weekend?
*****Wish to check your handicapping abilities towards fellow Unlocking Winners readers? Take a look at the Unlocking Winners contest web page—there is a new problem each week! (Please observe: older contest entries could be discovered right here.)

J. Keeler Johnson (also referred to as “Keelerman”) is a author, videographer, voice actor, handicapper, and all-around horse racing fanatic. An incredible fan of racing historical past, he considers Dr. Fager to be the best racehorse ever produced in America, however counts Zenyatta as his all-time favourite.



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